Our Research Published in Enterprising Investor

by Terri Z Campbell, CFA | February 2, 2026

The investment strategy that we use for your accounts is based on our original research. Historical market trends and how they change over time are foundational building blocks of our work.

We are often disappointed when we read business-oriented news stories that emphasize the rise and fall of stock prices without including the relevant news about company earnings. We share this data with our clients, which includes our favorite chart illustrating the high correlation between stock prices and earnings.

Over more than 150 years of data for the S&P Composite US stock market benchmark going back to 1871, there is a 98% correlation between stock prices and earnings – meaning that changes in the earnings for companies in the benchmark explain 98% of stock price moves over that period of time. Therefore, monitoring expectations for company earnings is a key factor that drives our investment approach. This relationship is very easily seen in the graph below.

Source: Robert J. Shiller Data: S&P Down Jones; Archer Bay Capital LLC

The correlation can vary over shorter time horizons, but as time periods increase, so does the correlation. I submitted a research paper on this topic to an industry journal sponsored by the CFA Institute, called Enterprising Investor. It is a journal for professional investors and it accepts papers from non-academics. They accepted my paper and published it this month.

Here is the published paper, if you would like to read more.

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Investment Advisory Services offered through Integrated Advisors Network LLC (IAN) a Registered Investment Advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Author

Terri Z Campbell, CFA

After more than twenty-five years managing portfolios for pensions, banks and a large insurance company, I started Archer Bay Capital to offer personalized financial planning and institutional-quality money management to individuals in a cost effective way. In the long run, practical, data-focused investment decisions will win versus chasing the latest trend. And as a Registered Investment Advisor, we are a fiduciary firm – our clients’ interests come first.

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