Since stock price moves are mostly explained by changes in the expectations of the profits of the underlying companies, we have been tracking the trend of quarterly and full-year 2025 earnings for the S&P 500 as the year has progressed.
The uncertainty caused by the fluctuating tariff policies appears to be leading to caution for both consumers and the private sector. Consumer Confidence measures have been declining. This may lead to nothing or it may lead to less consumer spending.
The stock market has had a rough ride since February as expectations for corporate profits have been coming down. Bonds have been doing better.
The political fight over the debt ceiling is impacting the bond market.